The optics will be loud, though beneath them is the structural reality that determines outcomes. To follow the real story, focus on the underlying dynamics rather than the ceremonies.
Trump will do to Taiwan what he tried to do to Ukraine. Fail to send arms but pretend you will. Pretend you are trying to protect the underdog while you are selling them out.
As to the erosion of the US in terms of allies and world position, Trump seems to be doing it all on purpose in accord with Putin's playbook.
Trump has no clue how to play the long game, and China is the master of the long game. A president and his advisers and allies must possess the ability to see multiple moves ahead on the chess board. Unfortunately, none of them ever got beyond checkers, and they’re not very good at that either.
Thanks, Alexandra. You’re absolutely right. I was somewhat surprised when my research highlighted specific foundational aspects of the US that guarantees were not just handing the world to China. But Trump has grossly accelerated our world status to just one of the players in a multipolar construct.
It appears that Trump is trying to out-Putin Putin. He may find himself on the wrong end of his actions, which will only shake up the world order - again! And not for better. Everyone’s eyes on Beijing this week. Truly, I don’t trust anything this administration is going to offer, due to the changing moods of the stable genius.
Great points all around. Not sure how much longer China's teapot refiners can survive on high oil costs though. There's also a lot of domestic pressure in China's economy (particularly its residential property market). So China is not operating from a position of pure strength.
The U.S. also slapped sanctions on three Chinese companies that allegedly provided satellite imagery to Iran of U.S. military activities in the Middle East -- all ahead of Trump's upcoming trip. Wondering if Trump will use that as negotiating leverage (more sanctions could be applied to hurt China, particularly in banking and energy markets where it's completely import dependent).
So Trump does have some leverage, but China probably has the upper hand with rare earths alone.
I wrote about the sanctions that hit late last week in case you missed that. But overall great insights, Keith.
No, they’re not operating from pure strength, and that’s what the piece hits on and where my research led me. Nor have all of our foundational advantages disappeared either.
Read both articles you sent, thanks, Robert! This one, however, seems to make some assumptions not based on collaborating sources. And it definitely misses foundational aspects of the US that strongly suggests we’re not giving up our raw power via resources other countries, including China, don’t have. It’s the deterioration of our position that concerns me, but only to the point we’re digressing into a state of multi polarity, sharing some of our previous leverage with China. My research dissuaded me from jumping on the ‘America is lost’ bandwagon and rather pursuing an objective opinion that it’s not a disaster, but why give up any leverage when we use to hold so much of it, even ALL of it in the decade following the collapse of the Soviet Union. But that’s just my studied opinion.
And that's the psychological trap of privilege. First you come to see your privilege as completely earned, then you convince yourself that everyone else does, too. And then you convince yourself that others won't resent you holding on to some of those privileges when you've so graciously handed over one or two others.
But look at it the other way, China believes it has earned everything it has, and everything the US is trying to deny them.
Like, for instance a certain Chinese island
And the right to freely do business with whoever it wishes.
And that makes the blockade and sanctions and demands that China respect them an insult and a challenge.
To put it in American terms, you're England, you've generously allowed 13 colonies to have some autonomy, surely they'll accept that they have to pay their taxes.
The thing is that several items on the list of things that America can use to damage China are 'poison pills', meaning that if America tries to use them, they'll damage AMERICA more than they will China.
Meanwhile, NVIDIA needs China more than China needs NVIDIA, now that DeepSeek is gully ported over to being native on Beijing's chips, made in Beijing's factories, and running Beijing's operating system.
Add in that unlike the places where NVIDIA makes chips, China’s chipmakers still have access to Gulf petrochemicals (and, of course have the inside track for rare earth supplies, too) and similar things face the rest of Trump's delegations and it may turn out that Trump could be replaying the plot of either Devil Wears Prada films, walking in expecting to triumph, only to find he's already been outmaneuvered and going to have to grin and express gratitude for whatever token Xi has given him.
Exceptional article. Most enlightening.
Trump will do to Taiwan what he tried to do to Ukraine. Fail to send arms but pretend you will. Pretend you are trying to protect the underdog while you are selling them out.
As to the erosion of the US in terms of allies and world position, Trump seems to be doing it all on purpose in accord with Putin's playbook.
Trump has no clue how to play the long game, and China is the master of the long game. A president and his advisers and allies must possess the ability to see multiple moves ahead on the chess board. Unfortunately, none of them ever got beyond checkers, and they’re not very good at that either.
Thanks, Alexandra. You’re absolutely right. I was somewhat surprised when my research highlighted specific foundational aspects of the US that guarantees were not just handing the world to China. But Trump has grossly accelerated our world status to just one of the players in a multipolar construct.
It appears that Trump is trying to out-Putin Putin. He may find himself on the wrong end of his actions, which will only shake up the world order - again! And not for better. Everyone’s eyes on Beijing this week. Truly, I don’t trust anything this administration is going to offer, due to the changing moods of the stable genius.
Great points all around. Not sure how much longer China's teapot refiners can survive on high oil costs though. There's also a lot of domestic pressure in China's economy (particularly its residential property market). So China is not operating from a position of pure strength.
The U.S. also slapped sanctions on three Chinese companies that allegedly provided satellite imagery to Iran of U.S. military activities in the Middle East -- all ahead of Trump's upcoming trip. Wondering if Trump will use that as negotiating leverage (more sanctions could be applied to hurt China, particularly in banking and energy markets where it's completely import dependent).
So Trump does have some leverage, but China probably has the upper hand with rare earths alone.
I wrote about the sanctions that hit late last week in case you missed that. But overall great insights, Keith.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-197052537
But of course, there’s China’s legislation that makes it illegal to comply with some of our sanctions.
No, they’re not operating from pure strength, and that’s what the piece hits on and where my research led me. Nor have all of our foundational advantages disappeared either.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-05-07/Analysis-DeepSeek-V4-is-breaking-the-AI-benchmark-obsession-1MXfVnTfQQ0/p.html
https://coreinterests.substack.com/p/beijing-has-already-decoded-trumps?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4demzn
Read both articles you sent, thanks, Robert! This one, however, seems to make some assumptions not based on collaborating sources. And it definitely misses foundational aspects of the US that strongly suggests we’re not giving up our raw power via resources other countries, including China, don’t have. It’s the deterioration of our position that concerns me, but only to the point we’re digressing into a state of multi polarity, sharing some of our previous leverage with China. My research dissuaded me from jumping on the ‘America is lost’ bandwagon and rather pursuing an objective opinion that it’s not a disaster, but why give up any leverage when we use to hold so much of it, even ALL of it in the decade following the collapse of the Soviet Union. But that’s just my studied opinion.
And that's the psychological trap of privilege. First you come to see your privilege as completely earned, then you convince yourself that everyone else does, too. And then you convince yourself that others won't resent you holding on to some of those privileges when you've so graciously handed over one or two others.
But look at it the other way, China believes it has earned everything it has, and everything the US is trying to deny them.
Like, for instance a certain Chinese island
And the right to freely do business with whoever it wishes.
And that makes the blockade and sanctions and demands that China respect them an insult and a challenge.
To put it in American terms, you're England, you've generously allowed 13 colonies to have some autonomy, surely they'll accept that they have to pay their taxes.
The thing is that several items on the list of things that America can use to damage China are 'poison pills', meaning that if America tries to use them, they'll damage AMERICA more than they will China.
Meanwhile, NVIDIA needs China more than China needs NVIDIA, now that DeepSeek is gully ported over to being native on Beijing's chips, made in Beijing's factories, and running Beijing's operating system.
Add in that unlike the places where NVIDIA makes chips, China’s chipmakers still have access to Gulf petrochemicals (and, of course have the inside track for rare earth supplies, too) and similar things face the rest of Trump's delegations and it may turn out that Trump could be replaying the plot of either Devil Wears Prada films, walking in expecting to triumph, only to find he's already been outmaneuvered and going to have to grin and express gratitude for whatever token Xi has given him.